Uncertainty Tool Changes

The OSCAM Ship v8 Uncertainty Tool was been extended to allow more inputs, and a variety of probability distributions to be applied. Further changes in OSCAM Ship v8.2 allowed selection of specific random number streams and further options for the display of uncertainty results.

Uncertainty Input Changes

The Uncertainty Tool has been extended to allow almost any non-tabular input to be selected.  It allows a variety of probability distributions to be used. To help in the selection of a probability distribution a graphical display will show the shape of the distribution for the selected parameter values. The input data for an Uncertainty run is now saved as part of the input data record rather than the workspace.

OSCAM Ship v8.2 introduced the option to specify the ransom number stream used for an uncertainty run, allowing uncertainty results to be replicated by selecting the same random number stream.

Uncertainty Tool Input form

Uncertainty Tool Input form screenshot

Probability Distribution dialog (Parameter and Graph views)

Probability Distribution Parameters screenshotProbability Distribution graph screenshot

Uncertainty Results Display

OSCAM Ship v8.2 introduced a number of changes to the display of uncertainty results. Rather than just seeing the uncertainty results for Total O&S costs, it is also possible to select top-level CAPE elements. Uncertainty results can also be exported for any the elements. The S-Curve shows markers for every 5th percentile which display values on mouse-over. An additional results tab displays a table of values for each 5th percentile.

Uncertainty Results S-Curve

OSCAM Ship v8.2 Uncertainty Results form screenshot